Spain beat Belgium 2-1 to reach the World Cup 2026 semi-finals, and it took a substitute two minutes to settle it
Spain are through to the World Cup 2026 semi-finals after beating Belgium 2-1 on Friday, with substitute Mikel Merino scoring the winner less than two minutes after coming off the bench. It sets up a mouth-watering semi-final against France, who beat Morocco 2-0 a day earlier to become the tournament's first confirmed last-four side.
Belgium were far from passengers in this one. Fabian Ruiz gave Spain the lead in the 30th minute with a well-taken finish, only for Charles De Ketelaere to drag Belgium level in the 41st with a goal that had their bench up on its feet. The second half was tense, cagey, and short on clear chances until Spain's manager turned to his bench and sent on Merino with the game delicately poised. It barely took him any time to make the difference. A shot from Pau Cubarsi came back off Belgium goalkeeper Senne Lammens, Merino was first to the loose ball, and Spain had their winner with two minutes gone since he had even set foot on the pitch.
For a Belgium side that had shown real quality throughout the knockout rounds, it was a cruel way to go out, beaten by a player who had barely broken sweat. For Spain, it continues a tournament in which they have looked like one of the sides most capable of going all the way, with a squad built around technical control in midfield and enough pace up front to punish teams the moment they drop their guard.
The semi-final: Spain against France
Spain now face France in what is arguably the standout tie of the last four, a repeat of some of the biggest European finals of the past decade in miniature. France arrived at this stage after their own comfortable win over Morocco, with Kylian Mbappe continuing to be the tournament's standout individual performer, statistically ahead of even Lionel Messi through the group and knockout stages so far. Spain will need their midfield trio to dominate possession the way they have all summer if they are going to deny France the space Mbappe thrives in.
There is no confirmed date and venue in the reporting so far beyond the broader semi-final window, so keep an eye on FIFA's official fixture list for the exact kick-off details once they land.
Tactically this looks like a genuine heavyweight contest. Spain have built their run on patient, possession-heavy football, wearing teams down over ninety minutes rather than overwhelming them early, and Belgium found that out the hard way when they still could not hold on despite matching Spain goal for goal for long spells. France offer almost the opposite approach, quick to transition and happy to let Mbappe and his fellow attackers exploit space in behind a high defensive line. Whichever team controls the tempo of the semi-final in the first half hour is likely to end up favourite by full time, which is exactly the kind of contest that makes for good betting research rather than a coin flip.
What the bookmakers make of it
Spain's odds to win the tournament outright have tightened since the Belgium win, and they now sit among the shortest-priced sides left in the competition alongside France. Here is how the outright market compares heading into the semi-final draw picture.
| Market | Bet9ja | SportyBet | 1xBet | Betway |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain to win World Cup 2026 | 4.50 | 4.20 | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| France to win World Cup 2026 | 3.50 | 3.30 | 3.20 | 3.45 |
| Spain to beat France in semi-final | 2.30 | 2.25 | 2.20 | 2.28 |
| Mikel Merino to score next match | 8.00 | 7.50 | 7.00 | 8.20 |
Odds like these shift the moment official semi-final line-ups and injury news are confirmed, so use this as a starting point rather than a final answer and check live prices before staking anything.
Why African bettors are watching this one closely
Spain versus France is shaping up to be one of the most heavily backed fixtures of the entire tournament among bettors in Nigeria, Kenya, Ghana and South Africa, largely because both sides carry serious star power and neither is considered a clear favourite. Bet9ja and SportyBet have both already listed early markets for the tie, and with Merino now having decided a quarter-final from the bench, first goalscorer and substitute impact markets are likely to draw plenty of interest too.
Betting sensibly on a knockout tournament
Knockout football has a habit of humbling favourites, and Spain's win over Belgium is a reminder that even the strongest sides can be one late substitution away from going out. Stick to a budget you set before kick-off, avoid chasing losses from an earlier game in the tournament, and remember that value in these markets comes from patience rather than backing the same side every round out of habit. If gambling ever stops being enjoyable, BeGambleAware and Gambling Therapy both offer free, confidential support.
FAQ
Who scored Spain's goals against Belgium?
Fabian Ruiz opened the scoring in the 30th minute, and substitute Mikel Merino scored the winner in the 88th minute, less than two minutes after coming on, converting a rebound from a Pau Cubarsi shot that Belgium's goalkeeper could not hold.
Who scored for Belgium against Spain?
Charles De Ketelaere equalised for Belgium in the 41st minute before Spain went on to win 2-1.
Who will Spain play in the World Cup 2026 semi-final?
Spain will face France, who beat Morocco 2-0 in their own quarter-final to become the first side to reach the last four.
Is Mikel Merino a starter for Spain?
No, Merino came off the bench against Belgium and scored the winning goal within two minutes of entering the game, underlining the depth of Spain's squad heading into the semi-final.
Want to get ahead of the semi-final markets. Head to sifufinds.com to compare Spain versus France odds across every major African bookmaker as soon as they land.
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